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Friday, April 23, 2010

THE STREET: Buffett Beats ETFs

By Don Dion 04/23/10 - 06:00 AM EDT

Stock quotes in this article: BRK.A , FMAGX , EWZ , SLX , RSP , DVY , SPY

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Warren Buffett's knack for making money has helped him attract millions of fans from around the world.

Among his followers are the authors and financial companies that have written books and dolled out millions in hopes of better understanding how this man's mind works. Given his track record against some of the most popular ETFs and mutual funds in existence, the investing world's attraction to this man is no surprise.

Buffett's ability to pick out undervalued companies and ride them to the top has helped him pocket huge profit for not only his own purse, but Berkshire Hathaway's(BRK.A) shareholders as well.

A little more than a month has gone by since a Barron's article put into perspective just how successful the Oracle of Omaha has been. In the piece, the author pitted Berkshire Hathaway's annualized returns since 1965 against every mutual fund in the same era. Funds falling into this category include Fidelity Magellan Fund(FMGAX).

Over this timeframe, Berkshire had a 22% average annual return. This was enough to declare Buffett the clear winner. Fidelity Magellan, Buffett's closest mutual fund competitor, earned slightly more than 16% annualized.

While Buffett's performance against the mutual fund industry has been impressive, can the same be said about exchange traded funds?

Today, there are nearly 1000 exchange traded products available that provide investors with access to a wide range of market slices. These include not only broad indexes, but volatile sectors, subsectors, and individual countries. It would be unfair to compare a fund like the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund(EWZ) or the Market Vectors Steel ETF(SLX) to Berkshire.

Instead, in order to level the playing field, Berkshire's performance needs to be compared to an ETF that closely resembles Buffett's actual investment portfolio. This, however, can prove challenging. Although the ETF industry has become vast, there are no products designed to specifically mimic Buffett, and active ETFs are only beginning to roll out. For that reason, in order to choose the best fund to compare to Berkshire Hathaway, it is crucial to know exactly what is under this company's hood.

Buffett's investing conglomerate has a particular focus on well known, large-cap companies in sectors that include financials, energy, consumer staples and industrials. Given the portfolio's diversity, it seems suitable to pit the firm against another broad-based, large-cap ETF that boasts a strong collection of household names.

Unfortunately, the only funds coming close are broad index ETFs and dividend-oriented ETFs. Among those, most do not come close to matching Buffett's return. I narrowed the field to the Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF(RSP) and the iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index Fund(DVY).

The first true exchange traded fund, SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY), was launched in 1993 and both DVY and RSP didn't make their appearance until ten years later. Therefore, in order to properly examine these funds against Berkshire, the timeframe must be cut down.

For the purposes of this examination, I compared the annualized returns of BRK.A to those of DVY and RSP over the past five years.

Berkshire Hathaway's annualized return since 1965 surpasses 20%. However, in looking at the returns over the shorter five-year window, the annualized return has dropped to slightly over 7%.

Seven percent is enough to easily beat DVY. Over the past five years, the fund's average annualized return is negative, with investors losing 0.40%.

The comparison between BRK and RSP is noticeably closer. However, once again, Buffett wins out. The equal weight ETF has seen a 5% annualized return over the past half decade versus Buffett's 7%.

Based on these findings, there isn't a a broad-based index ETF that has beaten Buffett. However, his lead has shrunk as Berkshire grows in size and becomes more like as index fund.

The question I have for readers is this: Do you think Buffett can keep up his streak over the next five years?

-- Written by Don Dion in Williamstown, Mass.

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