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Tuesday, April 1, 2008

GURUFOCUS: How concentrated is Buffett's Portfolio?

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March-31-200
Last week we discussed the numbers of stocks held in Gurus’ portfolios. Our users think that the weightings of top holdings are a better measure of the concentration of Gurus’ portfolios. This is our study.

The table below shows the portfolio overview of the Gurus. The numbers there only include the contributions from stocks. The positions in preferred stocks and options held in some Gurus’ portfolios are not included.

Guru Name Portfolio Date Weighting of Top 5 Positions Weighting of Top 10 Positions # of New Stccks Total Number of Stocks Value ($Million)
Joel Greenblatt 2007-12-31 100.0 100.0 1 2 20.90
Ian Cumming 2007-12-31 100.0 100.0 1 5 116.56
Glenn Greenberg 2007-12-31 97.0 100.0 1 8 3324.22
Edward Lampert 2007-12-31 99.7 100.0
6 11303.81
Bill Ackman 2007-12-31 99.7 100.0
6 1350.85
Mohnish Pabrai 2007-12-31 83.8 99.6 1 13 404.16
David Swensen 2007-12-31 95.7 99.3 3 15 454.30
Bruce Berkowitz 2007-12-31 72.5 92.1 3 33 6695.52
David Tepper 2007-12-31 71.7 91.7 5 21 1574.84
Carl Icahn 2007-12-31 69.0 86.2 6 31 4828.55
David Winters 2007-12-31 63.2 86.1 2 22 889.97
Warren Buffett 2007-12-31 60.7 82.1 2 40 68768.14
T Boone Pickens 2007-12-31 52.0 80.4 2 21 1381.25
Chuck Akre 2007-12-31 65.8 79.4 3 42 1805.74
David Einhorn 2007-12-31 53.1 78.2 5 23 2642.68
Robert Rodriguez 2007-12-31 45.6 69.5 1 25 1115.70
Ruane Cunniff 2007-12-31 49.2 68.8 11 206 12639.84
Irving Kahn 2007-12-31 43.5 67.5 1 61 590.04
Steve Mandel 2007-12-31 38.6 63.5 6 33 7830.99
Seth Klarman 2007-12-31 46.8 63.2 33 77 1766.21
Tweedy Browne 2007-12-31 42.1 61.6 3 70 2425.41
Wallace Weitz 2007-12-31 32.0 54.4 4 51 4039.25
Mark Hillman 2007-12-31 28.2 53.5 4 56 1223.44
Third Avenue Management 2007-12-31 35.7 52.7 9 179 11499.71
Mason Hawkins 2007-12-31 30.0 52.1 5 52 34326.07
Martin Whitman 2008-01-31 36.8 52.1
94 9172.01
Ronald Muhlenkamp 2007-12-31 27.7 50.9 3 57 1821.82
Tom Gayner 2007-12-31 32.2 50.7 3 75 1956.74
Bruce Sherman 2007-12-31 29.5 47.3 3 105 13959.31
Arnold Van Den Berg 2007-12-31 28.0 45.5 9 67 3190.88
Ken Heebner 2007-12-31 25.5 43.6 39 90 10042.67
Arnold Schneider 2007-12-31 28.5 42.3 31 160 3544.47
Bill Miller 2007-12-31 26.4 40.3 11 75 7476.23
Edward Owens 2007-12-31 23.6 38.7 2 80 23859.78
NWQ Managers 2007-12-31 22.4 37.8 11 141 30856.52
Michael Price 2007-12-31 23.8 37.8 16 81 511.66
Richard Pzena 2007-12-31 21.7 37.6 14 131 21077.95
David Dreman 2007-12-31 23.5 37.4 64 380 16866.70
Chris Davis 2007-12-31 22.1 37.1 16 206 90039.68
Jean-Marie Eveillard 2007-12-31 21.3 35.8 56 341 11796.47
John Rogers 2007-12-31 18.6 33.2 4 74 11865.76
HOTCHKIS & WILEY 2007-12-31 19.2 32.3 13 117 24554.02
Robert Bruce 2007-12-31 22.5 32.2 1 38 142.09
Dodge & Cox 2007-12-31 17.4 31.5 32 242 126230.28
Richard Snow 2007-12-31 16.0 30.5 11 86 5763.24
George Soros 2007-12-31 21.4 29.2 172 354 1647.66
Bill Nygren 2007-12-31 14.2 26.8 1 52 4710.20
Kenneth Fisher 2007-12-31 15.1 24.0 84 606 38022.25
Robert Olstein 2007-12-31 11.9 22.8 15 89 1547.28
Charles Brandes 2007-12-31 12.5 22.8 29 202 47845.23
Brian Rogers 2007-12-31 12.6 20.5 11 125 22110.93
Richard Aster Jr 2007-12-31 11.8 20.3 22 140 3400.50
Ron Baron 2007-12-31 10.9 18.3 38 301 19172.16
John Keeley 2007-12-31 8.8 14.7 50 418 9166.80

We can see that among the 53 Gurus we track, 5 gurus own less than 10 stocks in their portfolios. 15 have more than 50% of portfolios in their top 5 holdings, 28 have more than 50% of investment in top 10 holdings.

Warren Buffett, who owns 40 stocks in Berkshire’s $68 billion equity portfolio, has 60% of his investment in his top 5 holdings, more than 82% in top 10 holdings. This is what Charlie Munger said: "Our investment style has been given a name - focus investing - which implies ten holdings, not one hundred or four hundred. The idea that it is hard to find good investments, so concentrate in a few, seems to me to be an obvious idea. But 98% of the investment world does not think this way. It's been good for us."

Mohnish Pabrai likes to have 10 positions equal weighted. Currently he has 13 stocks, with 99.6% of the weighting in top 10.

Joel Greenblatt thinks that focus and concentration are the only ways to beat the market. He owns only two stocks as of last quarter. He does have some option positions which are not included in our list.

Gurus like John Keeley and David Dreman run small cap mutual funds. With multi billions under management, it is hard for them to concentrate their investments. But they both have achieved outstanding track record. The numbers of stocks they own are impossible for small investors to work with.

Concentration vs diversify, which way do you want to go?

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